Befitting a non-tech identify that has managed to maintain up with the AI-focused rally seen over the previous 12 months, Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) 2024 has kicked off in related style to 2023. The inventory has been a gainer within the early innings of the 12 months and the pharma large’s newest quarterly outcomes additional buoyed already upbeat sentiment.
The corporate’s This autumn outcomes exceeded expectations, boosted by its GLP-1 agonists. Mounjaro and Zepbound, therapies for diabetes and weight reduction, respectively, delivered the products and a few within the quarter. Mounjaro generated gross sales of $2.2 billion forward of the Avenue at $1.8 billion, whereas Zepbound’s haul following its current launch totaled $175.8 million, outpacing the Avenue’s $140.7 million forecast. These helped offset the decline within the blockbuster diabetes drug Trulicity, whose gross sales fell by 14% year-over-year to $1.7 billion.
The tip outcome was income of $9.35 billion, amounting to a 28.1% YoY enhance and beating the Avenue’s forecast by $380 million. Likewise, on the backside line, adj. EPS of $2.49 got here in $0.12 above consensus.
Wanting forward, powered by its new merchandise whereas additionally considerably offset by an anticipated drop in Trulicity gross sales, 2024 income is predicted to hit the vary between $40.4–41.6 billion, additionally above Wall Avenue’s forecast of $39.1 billion.
Relying on the availability ramp, Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn thinks that income information may show to be conservative. In reality, following the most recent print and information, Flynn is now anticipating a “modestly quicker provide ramp for autoinjectors” in comparison with his prior mannequin.
“Backside line,” says the analyst, “we reiterate our Chubby score on LLY following 4Q outcomes as we anticipate Mounjaro/Zepbound launch to drive upward revisions to income estimates and drive margin growth, albeit at a extra measured tempo in 2024, and the corporate has the strongest development profile inside our protection universe.”
That Chubby (i.e., Purchase) score is backed by a brand new worth goal from Flynn. The determine goes from $763 to $805, suggesting the inventory has room for additional development of ~9% within the 12 months forward. (To look at Flynn’s monitor file, click on right here)
Wanting on the consensus breakdown, the Avenue usually agrees with Flynn’s take. Primarily based on 18 Buys vs. 2 Holds, the inventory claims a Robust Purchase consensus score. Nonetheless, given the large share beneficial properties of the previous 12 months (up by 115%), the $761 common goal implies the inventory has a modest upside of lower than 3%. It is going to be fascinating to see whether or not different analysts comply with in Flynn’s footsteps and lift their worth targets shortly. (See Eli Lilly inventory forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this article are solely these of the featured analysts. The content material is meant for use for informational functions solely. It is rather essential to do your individual evaluation earlier than making any funding.
