Whereas Lewis expects inflationary pressures to remain larger within the coming decade than they have been within the final, the sharp and lagged impression of central financial institution rate of interest hikes in 2022 and 2023 ought to deliver inflation nearer to focus on ranges within the subsequent few months. He describes present rate of interest ranges as “extraordinarily restrictive,” although and notes each a modest slowdown in US development and a dip into both zero or unfavorable development in Canada imply we’re prone to see inflation fall into central financial institution goal vary this yr, whereas remaining a better concern throughout an extended horizon.
Over that shorter horizon, Lewis sees the makings of a ‘tug of conflict’ on fairness markets between valuation and earnings. Valuations, he says, have been pushed by expectations of rate of interest cuts. We noticed that within the rally from October to January, when consensus shifted to rates of interest coming down as early as spring of this yr. These expectations have been constructive each for equities and glued earnings.
The earnings aspect is inherently extra nuanced however might mirror the function larger charges are taking part in on firm stability sheets. Lewis believes traders are keen to look by means of some uncertainty on earnings within the subsequent few months, however as soon as charge cuts start we might have extra visibility. He says we will anticipate challenges till cuts, however as soon as they arrive sure sectors and geographies might start to carry out properly. That features Canadian equities which he thinks are oversold because of institutional investor bias towards the Canadian housing market. China may provide some alternatives relying on what the Chinese language authorities does to make sure their markets stay environment friendly and investable.
Fastened earnings is the place Lewis maybe sees the best alternatives in each the brief and the long-term. Whereas the rally in long-duration bonds late final yr seems to be within the means of pulling again, he thinks there’s continued alternative in authorities bonds as charge cuts get nearer. Credit score is the place Lewis believes traders can profit fairly clearly. He notes that company stability sheets are wholesome and lack the COVID-related money owed that governments took on. The outcomes are “first rate” spreads with stable outlooks for paybacks. Non-public credit score might additionally profit as some regional US banks pull again from a few of their lending practices, which means personal credit score investments can provide doubtlessly double digit returns within the shorter-term.
On the danger aspect, Lewis sees geopolitics as a continuing menace. Nevertheless, he notes that it’s onerous to place your self towards geopolitical dangers, as they have a tendency to have a low probability they usually elicit market overreactions after they do play out. However, it’s one thing asset managers have to observe. The opposite main threat Lewis sees is a chronic pause by central bankers. In the event that they wait too lengthy to chop, the injury to the financial system might necessitate steeper and sooner cuts than are wholesome, which might show damaging for markets.
