Job vacancies proceed to say no

Job vacancies in Australia have continued their downward pattern, dropping by 5.2% between Might and August from 348,000 to 329,900.

Each non-public and public sectors skilled declines, with the general public sector seeing its sharpest quarterly drop because the pandemic started, down 7.5%.

“Job vacancies have now edged decrease for 9 consecutive quarters and are 30.3% decrease than their peak in Might 2022,” mentioned Neha Sharma (pictured above), economist at Westpac.

Regardless of these declines, job vacancies are nonetheless considerably greater than their pre-COVID common of round 180,000.

Labour market stays tight however softening

Latest ABS information recommend a gradual easing in labour market circumstances, although the market stays tight by historic requirements.

The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, a key measure of labour market slack intently watched by the RBA, eased from 0.58 in Might to 0.53 in August.

Though down from its 2022 peak of 0.93, the ratio stays effectively above its long-term common of 0.2.

The most recent information launch “coupled with final week’s labour drive survey, is unlikely to materially alter the RBA’s evaluation on labour market circumstances: ‘that the labour market continues to be tight relative to full employment’ and circumstances are solely regularly softening,” Sharma mentioned.

Business-specific traits in job vacancies

The decline in job vacancies has been broad-based, affecting almost all industries over the previous yr apart from rental, hiring, and actual property providers, which noticed a slight improve of 0.2% year-over-year.

Probably the most important declines had been noticed in manufacturing, retail commerce, and humanities and recreation – sectors which can be closely impacted by decreased discretionary spending.

Nevertheless, in comparison with pre-COVID ranges, many industries nonetheless reported elevated vacancies, significantly in well being care and social providers, which stay greater than double their February 2020 ranges.

Gradual easing forward

Regardless of the constant drop in vacancies, the most recent information indicated that the labour market continues to be managing a fragile steadiness.

The “outcomes spotlight that the economic system stays on the steeper a part of the Beveridge curve, the place vacancies can fall with out a sharp improve in unemployment,” Sharma mentioned.

Westpac anticipates that this gradual softening will proceed, with the unemployment charge anticipated to rise modestly to 4.3% by the tip of the yr as labour market tightness eases.

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